Surprise in the forecasts of Californian almonds harvest

Californian almond harvest

The national statistical service of the Department of Agriculture of the United States has estimated, on July 4, 2019, that the production of Californian almonds will be around the 2,200 million pounds, which means a reduction of 3.5% with respect to the production reached in 2018, which stood at 2,280 million pounds. In addition, this new harvest forecast reduces by 12% the subjective harvest estimation published in May 2019.

The explanation of this decrease in the estimated production is due to several factors such as the intense spring rains (that hindered the pollination of the trees), the damage caused by high winds or the colder temperatures than usual during the development period of the fruit.

The set of fruits per tree is 4,667, that is, 17.8% less than the previous year, with the weight of the fruit (1.54 grams) practically identical to that of the 2018 crop.

The sample began on May 30 and ended on June 27, 2019, taking samples from a total of 1634 trees from 817 different fields.

By reducing the estimated amount of almonds produced by 12%, the prices supposedly will tend to rise, but we will see if the market is able to absorb these prices.

In the following link you can consult the report made by the government of the United States.

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Specialty_and_Other_Releases/Almond/Objective-Measurement/201907almom.pdf

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